The mask theory
By: Andrew Barnhill
Issue date: 10/31/08 Section: Opinions
Forget yard signs. Apparently, we can learn a lot from Halloween masks. In my one opportunity to scan CNN this week, I found that election coverage had reached an entirely new level. A Halloween costume web site has become the go-to pollster in this year's presidential election. As crazy as it sounds, I am convinced that they are on to something. Buycostumes.com has successfully predicted the winner of the past three presidential elections by its sales and has launched onto its success by this year offering the Presidential Mask Poll. So far, Barack Obama is in the lead with 53% of masks sold between the two major party candidates.
But this year, the company decided to begin with the primaries. Mask sales out of the two leading Democratic candidates had Barack beating Hillary 50.38% to 49.62% well before Super Tuesday. And John McCain was the clear favorite when the Republican field was filled with the likes of Romney, Huckabee, Thompson and lots of others.
What do Halloween masks tell us? They tell us who people like, what people identify with and what excites them. They tell us what is popular and who is the big hit. And while an election is designed to be much more a comparison of positions, issues and experience, at the end of the day, many Americans vote by who they like the most. Favoritism is not a tangible concept in elections, but it is certainly a reality for the mainstream voter. Favoritism dictates trust, and trust leads to a vote.
As we celebrate a holiday of candy and costumes, we find ourselves but moments away from Election Day. It is possible that Halloween will become the harbinger of election results instead of the World Series. Way back, if the American League won, the Republicans also won. If the National League prevailed, the spoils were given to the Democrats. But since this proposition has proved too unreliable since Jimmy Carter beat the odds in 1976, predictors and pop culture pollsters are looking for something to fill the void. Why is it that American have such an obsession with using pop culture realities to figure out their politics? Possibly they are just looking for some sort of early explanation.
Barack Obama had John McCain beat on the masks, but the hottest adult Halloween costume of 2008 is none other than Wasilla's own Sarah Palin. But popularity of vice presidential candidates has never been considered that important. No one could ever confuse the likeability of George W. Bush with that of Dick Cheney.
In a society enamored with polls, predictions and popularity, the mask theory could just be the next best thing. So take a look around the neighborhoods next week. You may just find out who the next president will be.
But this year, the company decided to begin with the primaries. Mask sales out of the two leading Democratic candidates had Barack beating Hillary 50.38% to 49.62% well before Super Tuesday. And John McCain was the clear favorite when the Republican field was filled with the likes of Romney, Huckabee, Thompson and lots of others.
What do Halloween masks tell us? They tell us who people like, what people identify with and what excites them. They tell us what is popular and who is the big hit. And while an election is designed to be much more a comparison of positions, issues and experience, at the end of the day, many Americans vote by who they like the most. Favoritism is not a tangible concept in elections, but it is certainly a reality for the mainstream voter. Favoritism dictates trust, and trust leads to a vote.
As we celebrate a holiday of candy and costumes, we find ourselves but moments away from Election Day. It is possible that Halloween will become the harbinger of election results instead of the World Series. Way back, if the American League won, the Republicans also won. If the National League prevailed, the spoils were given to the Democrats. But since this proposition has proved too unreliable since Jimmy Carter beat the odds in 1976, predictors and pop culture pollsters are looking for something to fill the void. Why is it that American have such an obsession with using pop culture realities to figure out their politics? Possibly they are just looking for some sort of early explanation.
Barack Obama had John McCain beat on the masks, but the hottest adult Halloween costume of 2008 is none other than Wasilla's own Sarah Palin. But popularity of vice presidential candidates has never been considered that important. No one could ever confuse the likeability of George W. Bush with that of Dick Cheney.
In a society enamored with polls, predictions and popularity, the mask theory could just be the next best thing. So take a look around the neighborhoods next week. You may just find out who the next president will be.